Indian economy heading towards V-shaped recovery in 2021: Assocham

The industry chamber said it expects immense accruals of economic benefits from the COVID-19 vaccination programme about to be rolled out. 

“The high-frequency data is a strong pointer to a V-shaped recovery in 2021 with the seeds bursting into green shoots over the last two months of 2020 itself,” Assocham Secretary General Deepak Sood said. 

India’s GDP is estimated to contract by a record 7.7% during 2020-21 as the COVID-19 pandemic severely hit the key manufacturing and services segments, as per government projections released on Thursday.

“With India about to roll out its vaccination programme with approvals of the two vaccines, the accruals of the economic benefits would be significant, especially to sectors such as hospitality, transportation, entertainment, which were hit hard during the pandemic,” Sood said.   

According to Assocham, the most definitive of the data is the record collection of ₹1.15 lakh crore in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) during December. 

“The state-wise collection showed the fightback spirit in consumer confidence. Illustratively, the largest consumption state of Maharashtra, which was amongst the severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, has posted a healthy growth of seven per cent in GST collection; even as the total GST mop-up was up 12 per cent year-on-year,” Sood said.

He said the Budget for 2021-22 would be a major catalyst. “Great focus on healthcare, agriculture and revival of demand would be imperatives in Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s Budget”.

The entire healthcare value chain from hospitals to medical education, primary health centres, scientific laboratories and further to the pharmaceutical industry along with the logistics is most likely to receive a booster shot of support from the forthcoming Budget, Sood added.